Thai rice exports could hit 9.5m tonnes this year
The Nation, May 28, 2004
Benjaprut Akkarasriprapai
The Nation
THAILAND HAS the capacity to reach 9.5 million tonnes of rice exports this year instead of the forecast 8.5 million tonnes, due to rival exporting countries suffering a shortage of stock because of bad weather, according to an international rice expert.
Tom Slayton, of Slayton and Associates, said at the Thailand Rice Convention 2004 yesterday that the real capacity of Thailand 's rice exports was estimated at more than 800,000 tonnes a month.
Thailand exported an average of 750,000 tonnes a month in the first three months of the year.
The swing in the rice market will help Thailand clear its stock and increase its export volume, Slayton said.
" Thailand is considered a centre of the rice trade. As long as government policy is stable and lets the market mechanism function, rice exports will reach 9.5 million tonnes this year," he said.
Rice exports from Thailand 's major competitors such as India , Vietnam and Pakistan are expected to decrease 50 per cent this year, he said. Slayton said world rice production was down 3.7 million tonnes this year due to poor weather conditions, resulting in a price increase.
He said Bangladesh 's production was down 800,000 tonnes, while China and Iraq were both down one million tonnes.
Thailand , however, had a healthy stockpile and was poised to see its exports soar.
Global rice consumption is expected to grow rapidly due to a population increase and economic growth, Slayton added.
For the main markets, Nigeria is expected to increase its imports to 3.5 million tonnes by 2010, from 1.2 million in 2000, while South Africa is expected to import 643,000 tonnes from the predicted 642,000 tonnes in 2005.
Saudi Arabia is expected to import 1.2 million tonnes by 2010, an increase from the predicted 960,000 tonnes in 2005.
Anthony Lam, the regional general manager of Golden Resources Development International Ltd, said China had been prompted to increase its rice exports due to lowland cultivation and an increase in demand.
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